RM Title: World Economic Outlook, October Author: International Monetary Fund. For more information, click here. It is a respected, one-stop, trusted resource offering remarkable insight, balance, and perspective to decision makers and policymakers worldwide.
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Policy choices preceding the crisis and in its immediate aftermath influenced postcrisis variation in output. Underscoring the importance of macroprudential policies and effective supervision, countries with greater financial vulnerabilities in the precrisis years suffered larger output losses after the crisis.
Countries with stronger precrisis fiscal positions and those with more flexible exchange rate regimes experienced smaller losses. Inflation in emerging market and developing economies since the mids has, on average, been low and stable.
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This chapter investigates whether these recent gains in inflation performance are sustainable as global financial conditions normalize. The findings are as follows: first, despite the overall stability, sizable heterogeneity in inflation performance and in variability of longer-term inflation expectations remains among emerging markets.
Second, changes in longer-term inflation expectations are the main determinant of inflation, while external conditions play a more limited role, suggesting that domestic, not global, factors are the main contributor to the recent gains in inflation performance. Third, further improvements in the extent of anchoring of inflation expectations can significantly improve economic resilience to adverse external shocks in emerging markets.
Anchoring reduces inflation persistence and limits the pass-through of currency depreciations to domestic prices, allowing monetary policy to focus more on smoothing fluctuations in output.
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The paper uses a small analytical two-region the United States and the Rest of the Industrial World model, to analyze three issues Concerning international economic interdependence and macroeconomic policy coordination that have been raised in connection with the September World Economic Outlook published by the IMF. Again the correct identification of the reason s for the disappointmentis shown to be crucial. The final Section discusses and qualifies the activist policy conclusions derived from the formal analysis.
Published: Buiter, Willem H. Buiter, Willem.